Dealing With America

Food for Thought

What if the seemingly chaotic actions of the Trump administration are actually part of a master plan? In their essay «On Dealing with America», Ivan Adamovich and Konrad Hummler ponder this question. Alongside a well-founded analysis of the USA’s realpolitik options as a tired hegemon, they outline three possible scenarios for the future of the international order to define the scope for small states and individuals with little power.

Above all, the first 100 days of the Trump administration revealed one thing: chaos reigns. But who benefits from it? Is it President Trump, consistently bluffing in the role of dealmaker? Or are his actions part of a meticulously planned script? The new publication by the Progress Foundation, a Swiss think tank with American roots, tackles this question and cautions against dismissing Trump as a merely unpredictable or even unintelligent president.

Hegemon Without Monopoly Rents

For decades, the United States benefited from its global supremacy and the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. But it committed a strategic blunder of historic proportions by allowing China to join the WTO without insisting on the long-term adoption of a convertible yuan; an oversight that marked the beginning of its own deindustrialization. Today, U.S. debt and military spending are growing faster than the economy and the hegemony is no longer paying off.

Three Possible Scenarios

Taking into account the possibility that the United States might actively promote the dismantling of its current supremacy in order to secure a strong position in a new world order, the authors outline three potential futures:

1. «Division of the World»: This is, in all likelihood, the scenario favored by the U.S. government. The main objective remains the reindustrialization of the American economy. This is to be pursued through tariff policies, a weak dollar, commitments from creditors to low interest rates and longer maturities, and a division of the world into U.S. and Chinese spheres of influence.
2. «Multilateralism 2.0»: In what is, from the rest of the world’s perspective, the most desirable scenario, the U.S. rolls back its tariff policies, and China agrees to reform multilateral institutions. A stronger international community emerges from this crisis.
3. «The Great Disorder»: Amid general tariff chaos, the U.S. increasingly turns inward, focusing on its domestic economy. Financial market uncertainty rises sharply, along with the risk of military conflicts. Those who cannot deter aggression risk becoming its target.

Acting Under Uncertainty

While there are strong arguments in favor of the Multilateralism 2.0 scenario, the authors recommend preparing for the more difficult outcomes as well. One thing seems certain: in the years to come, preserving one’s freedom will cost more than it has in the past.